Economic Evaluation of Agricultural Mitigation and Adaptation Technologies for Climate Change: Model Development for Impact Analysis and Technological Assessment

Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly
ISSN 00213551
NII recode ID (NCID) AA0068709X
Full text

Agricultural mitigation and adaptation technologies developed and assessed in a project organized by the Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Research Council were evaluated on an economic basis using a regional-production model, an applied general-equilibrium model, a discrete choice experiment, and a world-food model. Climate-change effects on food production were also evaluated using these models. This paper presents: (1) an overview of the sub-project structure and goals, (2) the six results of the sub-project, and (3) the future direction of the sub-project. Results of these models were subsequently integrated into a single regional model, whereupon selected technologies were economically evaluated using the models developed in the sub-project. The main results are as follows: (1) delaying the introduction of high-temperature-tolerant rice by one year will result in an average economic welfare losses of 429 million yen per year in Japan; (2) higher temperatures under RCP4.5 scenario will cause an increase in 0.2 t ha-1 rice yield in Japan in 2040s compared to a constant climate variables case; (3) the target reduction rate of GHG, which is 25% of the 1990 figure, will imply benefit-cost ratios greater than one for most CH4-suppression technologies developed in the project.

Date of issued
Creator FURUYA Jun TOKUNAGA Suminori OKIYAMA Mitsuru AKUNE Yuko KUNIMITSU Yoji AIZAKI Hideo KOBAYASHI Shintaro
Subject

Choice experiment

Dynamic computable general?equilibrium model

Regional production model

World?food model

Publisher Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences
Available Online
NII resource type vocabulary Journal Article
Volume 49
Issue 2
spage 119
epage 125
DOI 10.6090/jarq.49.119
Rights Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences
Language eng

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