Malaysian economy has grown remarkably, and the rice sector has drastically changed. In order to forecast the future direction of the rate of self-sufficiency in rice, we analyzed the factors that affect the supply and demand by constructing an econometric model. The results showed that the wage rate and per capita income are the key factors that exert strong negative effects on the planted area and demand, and that the direct seeding method introduced in the 1980s exerts a slightly negative effect on the yield. The simulation performed until the year 2003 year indicates that the self-sufficiency rate will decline to 55%, assuming the growth rate of GDP and population are 8% and 2.5%, respectively.