India has frequently imposed rice export restrictions since the 2000s. These restrictions have posed a significant risk to the global rice market and food security. Therefore, we examined the impact of India’s restrictions on rice exports on the global indica and japonica rice markets, as well as food security, using a partial equilibrium model and several food security indicators. The results of our simulations revealed that the restrictions affect the global indica and japonica rice markets through a substitution effect based on changes in relative prices. Furthermore, domestic indica rice prices for many net indica rice importers and exporters were expected to increase in 2023/24, leading to medium-term volatility. Our comprehensive assessment demonstrated that the restrictions pose a major risk to domestic food security for both net importers and exporters of indica rice in the short and medium term.