Applying the Simulation of Inter-Regional Movement of Japanese Dairy and Beef Cows: Estimation of the Surveillance Regions Following the Detection of Chronic Infectious Disease in a Disease-Free Country
Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly
ISSN | 00213551 |
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NII recode ID (NCID) | AA0068709X |

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Animal movement plays a critical role in the transmission of infectious diseases. The movement of infected cattle is suggested to contribute to the spread of chronic diseases such as bovine brucellosis and tuberculosis. When infected cattle are detected in disease-free countries, follow-up tests are conducted on all cattle with a history of cohabitation with the detected cattle to detect additional cases. Because follow-up tests require considerable human and testing resources, this study simulated the inter-regional movement of dairy and beef cows to identify regions where testing will be required after disease detection. The inter-regional movement probability was estimated from a complete set of cattle movement records in Japan, reflecting the characteristics of Japanese cattle movements between seven categories (Hokkaido, Tohoku, Kanto, Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku/Shikoku, and Kyushu/ Okinawa). The results suggest that the possibility of conducting follow-up tests was higher in Hokkaido for dairy cows. In contrast, this possibility was higher for beef cows in Hokkaido and Kyushu/Okinawa, regardless of the region where the infected cows were detected. These findings are beneficial for allocating human and material resources to high-risk regions and developing more efficient disease control programs.
Date of issued | |
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Creator | Yoshinori MURATO Yoko HAYAMA Sonoko KONDO Emi YAMAGUCHI Takehisa YAMAMOTO |
Subject | brucellosis cattle movement movement probability distribution tuberculosis |
Publisher | Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences |
Received Date | 2024-11-11 |
Accepted Date | 2025-02-20 |
Available Online | |
Volume | 59 |
Issue | 4 |
spage | 315 |
epage | 320 |
DOI | 10.6090/jarq.24J22 |
Language | eng |