China's food and agricultural sectors have experienced dramatic changes over the past two decades. The introduction of reform policies has substantially improved food supply situations. The Chinese people have never before faced such an abundant and diversified food market. Even nationwide surpluses in farm products occurred in the mid-1980s and the early 1990s.
However, looking into the future, there are still great challenges. Factors including population expansion, fast rising income and aspirations, resources depletion and degradation must be considered. The price hike of agricultural products and the associated high inflation in 1993/94 have challenged the over-optimistic atmosphere in the surplus period of 1991/92. Great concern arose again among agricultural administrators and the general public about the future agricultural growth potential and food security.
This paper reviews representative and controversial projections on the future food and agricultural issues in China. Through the identification and analysis of the major influencing factors, the author tries to narrow the wide gap between the various projections and provide a personal estimation on the most probable and likely development trend in China's food market and policy options in the decades to come.